Kim, Eungyeong Lee, Seok Lee, Taikjin Kim, Jae Hun Lee, Hyuk-jae Byun, Young Tae 2024-01-19T12:09:13Z 2024-01-19T12:09:13Z 2022-02-28 2013-09 1742-6588 https://pubs.kist.re.kr/handle/201004/115416 There are many types of respiratory infectious diseases caused by germs, virus, mycetes and parasites. Researchers recently have tried to develop mathematical models to predict the epidemic of infectious diseases. However, with the development of ground transportation system in modern society, the spread of infectious diseases became faster and more complicated in terms of the speed and the pathways. The route of infectious diseases during Vancouver Olympics was predicted based on the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. In this model only the air traffic as an essential factor for the intercity migration of infectious diseases was involved. Here, we propose a multi-city transmission model to predict the infection route during 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea based on the pre-existing SIR model. Various types of transportation system such as a train, a car, a bus, and an airplane for the interpersonal contact in both inter-and intra-city are considered. Simulation is performed with assumptions and scenarios based on realistic factors including demographic, transportation and diseases data in Korea. Finally, we analyze an economic profit and loss caused by the variation of the number of tourists during the Olympics. English IOP PUBLISHING LTD Route prediction model of infectious diseases for 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea Conference 10.1088/1742-6596/490/1/012108 1 2nd International Conference on Mathematical Modeling in Physical Sciences (IC-MSQUARE) 2nd International Conference on Mathematical Modeling in Physical Sciences (IC-MSQUARE) UK Prague, CZECH REPUBLIC 2013-09-01 2ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MATHEMATICAL MODELING IN PHYSICAL SCIENCES 2013 (IC-MSQUARE 2013) 000335909300106 2-s2.0-84896991914