Sulfur deposition simulations over China, Japan, and Korea: a model intercomparison study for abating sulfur emission

Abstract

In response to increasing trends in sulfur deposition in Northeast Asia, three countries in the region (China, Japan, and Korea) agreed to devise abatement strategies. The concepts of critical loads and source-receptor (S-R) relationships provide guidance for formulating such strategies. Based on the Long-range Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia (LTP) project, this study analyzes sulfur deposition data in order to optimize acidic loads over the three countries. The three groups involved in this study carried out a full year (2002) of sulfur deposition modeling over the geographic region spanning the three countries, using three air quality models: MM5-CMAQ, MM5-RAQM, and RAMS-CADM, employed by Chinese, Japanese, and Korean modeling groups, respectively. Each model employed its own meteorological numerical model and model parameters. Only the emission rates for SO2 and NOx obtained from the LTP project were the common parameter used in the three models. Three models revealed some bias from dry to wet deposition, particularly the latter because of the bias in annual precipitation. This finding points to the need for further sensitivity tests of the wet removal rates in association with underlying cloud-precipitation physics and parameterizations. Despite this bias, the annual total (dry plus wet) sulfur deposition predicted by the models were surprisingly very similar. The ensemble average annual total deposition was 7,203.6 +/- 370 kt S with a minimal mean fractional error (MFE) of 8.95 +/- 5.24 % and a pattern correlation (PC) of 0.89-0.93 between the models. This exercise revealed that despite rather poor error scores in comparison with observations, these consistent total deposition values across the three models, based on LTP group's input data assumptions, suggest a plausible S-R relationship that can be applied to the next task of designing cost-effective emission abatement strategies.