몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 LCI data 불확실성 처리방법론

Abstract

Life cycle assessment (LCA) usually involves some uncertainty. These uncertainties are generally divided in two categories such lack of data and data inaccuracy in life cycle inventory (LCI). This paper explores a methodology on dealing with uncertainty due to lack of data in LCI. In order to treat uncertainty of LCI data, a model for data uncertainty is proposed. The model works with probabilistic curves as inputs and with Monte Carlo Simulation techniques to propagate uncertainty. The probabilistic curves were derived from the results of survey in expert network and Monte Carlo Simulation was performed using the derived probabilistic curves. The results of Monte Carlo Simulation were verified by statistical test. The proposed approach should serve as a guide to improve data quality and deal with uncertainty of LCI data in LCA projects.