Dynamics of two distinct subseasonal growth of the North Pacific Oscillation

Abstract

This study investigates the growth mechanism of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), one of the primary causes of winter temperature extremes at midlatitudes. We find that the NPO has two distinct origins: one is the Rossby wave propagating across Eurasia that strengthens during cold/warm surges over East Asia. The corresponding vorticity and thermal anomalies grow into the NPO as they move eastward. The other is a local disturbance at the Asian Pacific jet stream exit that amplifies when propagating westward. The dynamical processes behind these two types of NPO growth are investigated by conducting quasi-geostrophic geopotential tendency budget analysis, focusing on the relative importance of the vorticity flux and differential heat flux. It is revealed that the contribution of high-frequency eddies is greater in the NPO that grows from a local disturbance. However, NPO growths in both cases are primarily steered by low-frequency vorticity flux, which facilitates eastward or westward propagation through relative or planetary vorticity advections, respectively. Differential heat flux promotes the growth of the NPO before the onset, but dissipates the NPO anomalies afterward. The net effect of the heat flux, however, allows the NPO to amplify and persist through baroclinic instability by constraining the NPO anomalies to have westward vertical tilt. Accordingly, the NPO grows conforming to the dissipative destabilizing mechanism. From the perspective of potential vorticity (PV), the eastward growth of the NPO originates from the downstream advection of PV anomalies accumulated over East Asia, while westward growth is favored by a strong PV gradient near the jet stream.